DOF Economic Bulletin on Inflation for February 2018
March 7, 2018
Inflation rose to 4.5% (using 2006 as base year) in February 2018 from 3.95% in January 2017. This is 0.55 percentage point higher than in the previous month.
The biggest increases came from:
1. Food and non-alcoholic beverages---by 0.16 percentage point.
Of food items, the biggest increases came from:
a. Rice--- by 0.12 percentage point as rice prices rose by 2.8% in February from 1.5% last month– This is due to NFA’s withholding of rice supply from commercial outlets thus leaving consumers to purchase higher-priced commercial rice.
b. Non-alcoholic beverages--- by 0.03 percentage point as prices rose from 2.8% to 4.8% – This is due to the tax on sugar-sweetened beverages.
2. Alcoholic beverages and tobacco ---by 0.09 percentage point as this commodity group raised prices by 16.9% (from 12.2% in January) due to the 4% sin tax adjustment and improved tax compliance by a major producer.
3. Non-food items---by 0.27 percentage point.
a. The biggest item, restaurants and miscellaneous services, rose by 0.24 percentage point as restaurants adjusted prices due to higher prices of food inputs including sugar-sweetened beverages.
b. Transport also pushed up the index by 0.10 percentage point as private transport fuel rose by 7.2%.
Transport fuel price adjustments were due primarily to higher world prices of petroleum products. Only a little less than 10% could be attributed to excise tax adjustment under TRAIN.
World petroleum prices rose to US$63/barrel in January-February 2018 from US$53.5/barrel the year before, an 18% increase. Add to this the 2.6% exchange rate depreciation in January and February (from P49.85/US$ to P50.5) and the total adjustment should be 20.8% vs. 7.2% actual adjustment.
Inflation was caused mainly by rice, restaurant charges due to sugar-sweetened beverages and fuels and transport, due to the 18% rise in world prices.
Table 1: Inflation Rate by Commodity Group
|
|
Commodity Group
|
Weight
|
Jan-00
|
|
Rise in
|
in CPI
|
|
Feb CPI
|
2006 base
|
Feb-18
|
MOM
|
All items
|
100
|
3.95
|
4.48
|
0.53
|
FOOD & NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES
|
38.98
|
4.47
|
4.89
|
0.16
|
Rice
|
8.92
|
1.47
|
2.77
|
0.12
|
Corn
|
0.67
|
8.60
|
10.40
|
0.01
|
Meat
|
6.97
|
6.20
|
6.70
|
0.03
|
Vegetables
|
3.19
|
1.80
|
2.60
|
0.03
|
Non-alcoholic beverages
|
2.69
|
2.84
|
3.90
|
0.03
|
Fish
|
5.83
|
12.35
|
11.22
|
-0.07
|
ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES & TOBACCO
|
2.00
|
12.17
|
16.85
|
0.09
|
Alcoholic Beverages
|
1.01
|
5.10
|
5.80
|
0.01
|
Tobacco
|
0.99
|
17.40
|
24.84
|
0.07
|
NON-FOOD
|
58.99
|
3.10
|
3.50
|
0.27
|
Clothing and footwear
|
2.95
|
1.94
|
2.00
|
0.00
|
Housing, Utilities & Fuels
|
22.47
|
2.77
|
2.64
|
-0.03
|
Electricity, Gas & Other Fuels
|
7.07
|
7.20
|
6.20
|
-0.07
|
Furnishings, household equipment
|
3.22
|
2.15
|
2.51
|
0.01
|
Health
|
2.99
|
2.06
|
2.60
|
0.02
|
Transport
|
7.81
|
4.54
|
5.76
|
0.10
|
Communication
|
2.26
|
0.30
|
0.40
|
0.00
|
Recreation and Culture
|
1.93
|
1.46
|
1.50
|
0.00
|
Education
|
3.36
|
2.30
|
2.20
|
0.00
|
Restaurants & Misc. Services
|
12.03
|
2.20
|
4.20
|
0.24
|
Core
|
|
3.90
|
4.40
|
|
Source of Basic Data: PSA
|
|
|
|
|